Milton Keynes Dons 0–0 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crawley Town

2/17/2026

League Two · Round 33Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons58%

×Draw24%

Crawley Town18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.83

Milton Keynes Dons

1.69

Crawley Town

0.83

Milton Keynes Dons creates 104% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 29 away

1.67

creates per match

0.79

0.87

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.67

Crawley Town

0.79

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

0.87

Crawley Town

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

82%

Milton Keynes Dons or Crawley Town

76%

Draw or Crawley Town

42%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

32%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

82%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

50%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

24%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

56%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

20%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

76%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.87 · 46 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.67 + Crawley Town defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.69

Crawley Town attack 0.79 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

58%

level

24%

Crawley Town scores more

18%

Milton Keynes Dons at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

J. Chapman

Crawley Town · G

8.3

Match Events

1'

Geraldo Bajrami

23'

Jay Williams

32'

Luke Offord

37'

D. Crowley← J. Matete

66'

D. Pereira← L. Richards

73'

S. Hogan← R. Hepburn-Murphy

80'

J. Russell← J. Flint

80'

A. Adeyemo← K. Lolos

83'

J. Tomlinson← J. Mellish

83'

C. Lemonheigh-Evans← L. Kelly

87'

H. Forster← K. Gordon

90+2'

Jacob Chapman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonCrawley

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots11

9Corners2

11Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots11

4On Target4

4Off Target5

5Blocked2

12Inside Box5

1Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

349Total Passes340

235Accurate Passes237

67%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides2