Crawley Town 3–0 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Milton Keynes Dons

R. Darcy 65'

J. Williams 45+1'

L. Kelly 5'

5/7/2024

League Two · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsBroadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Crawley Town37%

×Draw25%

Milton Keynes Dons38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.45

Crawley Town

1.44

Milton Keynes Dons

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 59 away

1.27

creates per match

1.53

1.36

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.27

Milton Keynes Dons

1.53

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.36

Milton Keynes Dons

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

62%

Crawley Town or Milton Keynes Dons

75%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

63%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

17%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

76%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

42%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

18%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

77%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

42%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

50%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.27 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.44

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.53 + Crawley Town defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Crawley Town scores more

37%

level

25%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

38%

Milton Keynes Dons at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

L. Kelly

Crawley Town · M

8.9

Match Events

5'

L. Kelly↳ A. Campbell

41'

Joseph Tomlinson

45'

Lewis Bate

45+1'

J. Williams↳ W. Wright

51'

Laurence Maguire

57'

Daniel Harvie

60'

K. Gordon← H. Forster

60'

R. Darcy← A. Campbell

60'

K. Lofthouse← C. Norman

61'

E. Harrison← S. Wearne

65'

R. Darcy↳ L. Kelly

66'

Dion Conroy

78'

N. Tsaroulla← J. Kelly

79'

M. Williams← J. Payne

79'

E. Tezgel← A. Gilbey

86'

A. Adeyemo← D. Orsi

90+3'

Kellan Gordon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyMilton

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots13

3Corners5

6Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots13

6On Target5

2Off Target7

4Blocked1

8Inside Box9

4Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

423Total Passes393

313Accurate Passes303

74%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1