Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Milton Keynes Dons vs Carlisle — League Two 2025

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Carlisle
Carlisle
E. Harrison 90+2'
A. Gilbey 31'
C. Hendry 18'
8/24/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons70%
×Draw20%
Carlisle10%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.92
Carlisle
0.57

Milton Keynes Dons creates 237% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 3 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.84
Carlisle
0.33

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
0.80
Carlisle
2.00

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Carlisle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
90%
Milton Keynes Dons or Carlisle
80%
Draw or Carlisle
30%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
43%
Carlisle wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
85%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
57%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
30%
Carlisle 1+ goals
43%
Carlisle 2+ goals
11%
Carlisle 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
87%
Carlisle (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Carlisle away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.84 + Carlisle defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Carlisle attack 0.33 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
70%
level
20%
Carlisle scores more
10%

Milton Keynes Dons at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
J. TomlinsonMilton Keynes DonsMilton Keynes Dons · M
8.2

Match Events

18'
C. Hendry↳ A. Nemane
31'
A. Gilbey↳ A. Nemane
38'
Stephen Wearne
46'
D. Sadi← B. Barclay
54'
J. Tucker← L. Offord
67'
L. Armstrong← D. Adu-Adjei
73'
G. Kelly← C. Wyke
73'
J. Ellis← B. Williams
75'
Aaron Nemane
80'
T. Leigh← S. Wearne
80'
E. Harrison← C. Hendry
85'
D. Butterworth← G. Kelly
89'
C. Tripp← A. Nemane
90+8'
Callum Tripp
90'
M. Williams← C. Lemonheigh-Evans
90+2'
E. Harrison↳ J. Tomlinson

Possession

67%Milton

Shots

15Milton

Pass accuracy

56%Milton

Statistics

MiltonCarlisle
Overview
67%Possession33%
15Total Shots9
4Corners0
10Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots9
6On Target3
6Off Target3
3Blocked3
8Inside Box3
7Outside Box6
Passing
67%Possession33%
635Total Passes305
520Accurate Passes197
82%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls15
3Yellow Cards0
3Offsides0

League Two: Milton Keynes Dons 3–0 Carlisle

Milton Keynes Dons beat Carlisle 3-0 in League Two on August 24, 2024.

Goals: C. Hendry (18'), A. Gilbey (31'), E. Harrison (90+2').

Milton Keynes Dons controlled possession (67%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadium MK in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.