Carlisle 2–2 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Milton Keynes Dons

K. Harris 45+4'

M. Dennis 26'

A. Gilbey 37'

J. Tomlinson 6'

3/25/2025

League Two · Round 26Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Carlisle23%

×Draw22%

Milton Keynes Dons55%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

2.00

Carlisle

1.21

Milton Keynes Dons

2.00

Milton Keynes Dons creates 65% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 25 away

1.25

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Carlisle

1.25

Milton Keynes Dons

2.00

allows per match

Carlisle

2.00

Milton Keynes Dons

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

45%

Carlisle or Milton Keynes Dons

78%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

77%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

9%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

70%

Carlisle 2+ goals

34%

Carlisle 3+ goals

12%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

86%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

59%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

29%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.25 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Milton Keynes Dons attack 2.00 + Carlisle defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Carlisle scores more

23%

level

22%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

55%

Milton Keynes Dons at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

A. Davies

Carlisle · D

7.5

Match Events

3'

Josh Vela

6'

J. Tomlinson↳ A. Nemane

8'

26'

37'

45+4'

55'

74'

77'

G. Kelly← J. Vela

87'

J. Bevan← J. Jones

87'

S. Fusire← C. Whelan

87'

C. Guy← S. Wearne

88'

T. O'Reilly← D. Crowley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleMilton

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots8

7Corners2

12Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots8

3On Target4

3Off Target2

5Blocked2

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box0

Passing

42%Possession58%

402Total Passes593

300Accurate Passes507

75%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3