Milton Keynes Dons 1–2 Accrington ST

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Accrington ST

A. Gilbey 48'

C. Caton 73'

I. Sinclair 19'

9/20/2025

League Two · Round 9Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons52%

×Draw26%

Accrington ST22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.88

Milton Keynes Dons

1.53

Accrington ST

0.88

Milton Keynes Dons creates 74% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 29 away

1.66

creates per match

0.90

0.86

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.66

Accrington ST

0.90

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

0.86

Accrington ST

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

78%

Milton Keynes Dons or Accrington ST

74%

Draw or Accrington ST

48%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

27%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

78%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

45%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

20%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

59%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

22%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

71%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.86 · 44 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.66 + Accrington ST defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.53

Accrington ST attack 0.90 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

52%

level

26%

Accrington ST scores more

22%

Milton Keynes Dons at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Gilbey

Milton Keynes Dons · M

7.3

Match Events

17'

Liam Kelly

19'

I. Sinclair↳ T. Walton

27'

38'

45'

46'

48'

52'

Connor Lemonheigh-Evans

65'

L. Coyle← S. Conneely

65'

C. Caton← T. Walton

73'

C. Caton↳ I. Heath

79'

S. Hogan← C. Lemonheigh-Evans

79'

L. Maguire← N. Mendez-Laing

79'

D. Love← C. Brown

83'

A. Henderson← J. Woods

87'

J. Leko← R. Hepburn-Murphy

87'

K. Thompson-Sommers← D. Crowley

90+5'

Alex Gilbey

90+5'

Luke Offord

90+5'

Luke Offord

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonAccrington

Overview

54%Possession46%

7Total Shots15

3Corners5

14Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots15

3On Target6

2Off Target5

2Blocked4

6Inside Box9

1Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

381Total Passes315

259Accurate Passes196

68%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls7

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

4Offsides1