Accrington ST 2–0 Milton Keynes Dons

Accrington ST

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Milton Keynes Dons

J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh 39'

T. Walton 24'

3/4/2025

League Two · Round 35Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Accrington ST37%

×Draw25%

Milton Keynes Dons38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.40

Accrington ST

1.39

Milton Keynes Dons

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 59 away

1.17

creates per match

1.53

1.27

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.17

Milton Keynes Dons

1.53

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.27

Milton Keynes Dons

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

62%

Accrington ST or Milton Keynes Dons

75%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

63%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

17%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

75%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

40%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

16%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

75%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

41%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

50%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 48 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.17 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.39

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.53 + Accrington ST defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Accrington ST scores more

37%

level

25%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

38%

Milton Keynes Dons at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

S. Quirk

Accrington ST · M

7.6

Match Events

24'

T. Walton↳ S. Quirk

39'

J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh↳ C. Caton

59'

Travis Patterson

61'

J. Tomlinson← T. Patterson

61'

J. White← J. Williams

62'

Nico Lawrence

64'

K. Mooney← C. Caton

71'

D. Orsi← L. Kelly

78'

J. Batty← A. Henderson

88'

C. Lemonheigh-Evans← C. Waller

89'

Seb Quirk

90+5'

Tyler Walton

90+5'

Luke Offord

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonMilton

Overview

29%Possession71%

10Total Shots4

2Corners7

21Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots4

3On Target0

3Off Target2

4Blocked2

7Inside Box2

3Outside Box2

Passing

29%Possession71%

225Total Passes569

141Accurate Passes475

63%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1