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Milton Keynes Dons vs Accrington ST — League One 2018

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
8/28/2021League OneLeague One · Round 5Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons48%
×Draw26%
Accrington ST26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.50
Accrington ST
1.04

Milton Keynes Dons creates 44% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 110 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.31
Accrington ST
0.95

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.14
Accrington ST
1.70

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
74%
Milton Keynes Dons or Accrington ST
74%
Draw or Accrington ST
52%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
24%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
78%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
44%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
19%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
65%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
28%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
65%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 93 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.70 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.31 + Accrington ST defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Accrington ST attack 0.95 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
48%
level
26%
Accrington ST scores more
26%

Milton Keynes Dons at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Milton Keynes Dons vs Accrington ST

Milton Keynes Dons beat Accrington ST 2-0 in League One on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadium mk in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.