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Milsami Orhei vs Floreşti — Super Liga 2026

Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orhei
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Floreşti
Floreşti
10/1/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 7Complexul Sportiv Raional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Milsami Orhei67%
×Draw19%
Floreşti14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milsami Orhei
2.24
Floreşti
0.90

Milsami Orhei creates 149% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 62 away

creates per match

Milsami Orhei
1.66
Floreşti
0.81

allows per match

Milsami Orhei
0.98
Floreşti
2.82

finishing

Milsami Orhei+0.00on par
Floreşti+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milsami Orhei ↓

Floreşti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Milsami Orhei or draw
86%
Milsami Orhei or Floreşti
81%
Draw or Floreşti
33%

Winning margin

Milsami Orhei wins by 2+
44%
Floreşti wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Milsami Orhei 1+ goals
89%
Milsami Orhei 2+ goals
65%
Milsami Orhei 3+ goals
38%
Floreşti 1+ goals
59%
Floreşti 2+ goals
23%
Floreşti 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)
83%
Floreşti (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milsami Orhei at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.98 · 98 matches

Floreşti away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.82 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milsami Orhei attack 1.66 + Floreşti defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.24

Floreşti attack 0.81 + Milsami Orhei defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Milsami Orhei scores more
67%
level
19%
Floreşti scores more
14%

Milsami Orhei at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Milsami Orhei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Milsami Orhei 2–1 Floreşti

Milsami Orhei beat Floreşti 2-1 in Super Liga on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Complexul Sportiv Raional in Orhei.