Floreşti 1–0 Milsami Orhei: Result & Stats

Floreşti

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Milsami Orhei

12/3/2023

Super Liga · Round 14Krytyj futbolnyj Manesh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Floreşti26%

×Draw23%

Milsami Orhei51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FloreştiExpected goals in this matchMilsami Orhei

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.89

Floreşti

1.29

Milsami Orhei

1.89

Milsami Orhei creates 47% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 98 away

1.31

creates per match

1.46

2.31

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Floreşti

1.31

Milsami Orhei

1.46

allows per match

Floreşti

2.31

Milsami Orhei

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Floreşti+0.00on par

Milsami Orhei+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floreşti ↓

Milsami Orhei →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Floreşti or draw

49%

Floreşti or Milsami Orhei

77%

Draw or Milsami Orhei

74%

Winning margin

Floreşti wins by 2+

11%

Milsami Orhei wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Floreşti 1+ goals

72%

Floreşti 2+ goals

37%

Floreşti 3+ goals

14%

Milsami Orhei 1+ goals

85%

Milsami Orhei 2+ goals

56%

Milsami Orhei 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Floreşti (draw refunded)

34%

Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floreşti at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.31 · 64 matches

Milsami Orhei away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.27 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floreşti attack 1.31 + Milsami Orhei defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Milsami Orhei attack 1.46 + Floreşti defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Floreşti scores more

26%

level

23%

Milsami Orhei scores more

51%

Milsami Orhei at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Milsami Orhei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff