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Milsami Orhei vs Buducnost Podgorica — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orhei
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
7/31/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundComplexul Sportiv Raional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Milsami Orhei47%
×Draw27%
Buducnost Podgorica26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milsami Orhei
1.38
Buducnost Podgorica
0.96

Milsami Orhei creates 44% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Milsami Orhei
0.90
Buducnost Podgorica
0.43

allows per match

Milsami Orhei
1.50
Buducnost Podgorica
1.86

finishing

Milsami Orhei+0.00on par
Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milsami Orhei ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Milsami Orhei or draw
74%
Milsami Orhei or Buducnost Podgorica
73%
Draw or Buducnost Podgorica
53%

Winning margin

Milsami Orhei wins by 2+
22%
Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Milsami Orhei 1+ goals
75%
Milsami Orhei 2+ goals
40%
Milsami Orhei 3+ goals
16%
Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
62%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
25%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)
64%
Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milsami Orhei at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milsami Orhei attack 0.90 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.38

Buducnost Podgorica attack 0.43 + Milsami Orhei defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Milsami Orhei scores more
47%
level
27%
Buducnost Podgorica scores more
26%

Milsami Orhei at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Milsami Orhei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Milsami Orhei vs Buducnost Podgorica

Milsami Orhei beat Buducnost Podgorica 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 31, 2025.

The match was played at Complexul Sportiv Raional in Orhei.