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Buducnost Podgorica vs Milsami Orhei — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orhei
7/23/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundPodgorica City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica49%
×Draw25%
Milsami Orhei26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buducnost Podgorica
1.58
Milsami Orhei
1.08

Buducnost Podgorica creates 46% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica
1.67
Milsami Orhei
1.00

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica
1.17
Milsami Orhei
1.50

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par
Milsami Orhei+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Milsami Orhei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw
74%
Buducnost Podgorica or Milsami Orhei
75%
Draw or Milsami Orhei
51%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
25%
Milsami Orhei wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
79%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
47%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
21%
Milsami Orhei 1+ goals
66%
Milsami Orhei 2+ goals
29%
Milsami Orhei 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
65%
Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Milsami Orhei away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.67 + Milsami Orhei defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Milsami Orhei attack 1.00 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more
49%
level
25%
Milsami Orhei scores more
26%

Buducnost Podgorica at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Buducnost Podgorica 0–0 Milsami Orhei

Buducnost Podgorica and Milsami Orhei drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 23, 2025.

The match was played at Podgorica City Stadium in Podgorica.