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Millwall vs Reading — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Reading
Reading
J. Böðvarsson 82'
M. Smith 71'
1/18/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 28The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Millwall45%
×Draw27%
Reading28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.36
Reading
1.02

Millwall creates 33% more chances

Season form · 185 home / 112 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.24
Reading
0.99

allows per match

Millwall
1.04
Reading
1.49

finishing

Millwall+0.00on par
Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
72%
Millwall or Reading
73%
Draw or Reading
55%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
21%
Reading wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
74%
Millwall 2+ goals
39%
Millwall 3+ goals
16%
Reading 1+ goals
64%
Reading 2+ goals
27%
Reading 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
61%
Reading (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.04 · 185 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.24 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Reading attack 0.99 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Millwall scores more
45%
level
27%
Reading scores more
28%

Millwall at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
J. CooperMillwallMillwall · D
7.9

Match Events

19'
Tom Bradshaw
33'
Charlie Adam
58'
J. Obita← C. Adam
59'
G. Puşcaş← S. Baldock
68'
C. Mahoney← S. Ferguson
70'
Ovie Ejaria
71'
M. Smith
75'
G. McCleary← Pelé
79'
J. Böðvarsson← M. Smith
80'
Michael Morrison
82'
J. Böðvarsson↳ J. Wallace
90+2'
B. Mitchell← R. Woods

Possession

46%Millwall

Shots

21Millwall

Pass accuracy

49%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallReading
Overview
46%Possession54%
21Total Shots7
10Corners1
12Fouls9
Shots
21Total Shots7
8On Target0
8Off Target4
5Blocked3
12Inside Box4
9Outside Box3
Passing
46%Possession54%
357Total Passes436
266Accurate Passes338
75%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls9
1Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: Millwall vs Reading

Millwall beat Reading 2-0 in Championship on January 18, 2020.

Goals: M. Smith (71'), J. Böðvarsson (82').

Reading controlled possession (54%) and registered 7 shots to 21.

The match was played at The Den in London.