Millwall 1–0 Reading: Result & Stats | Championship

Millwall

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Reading

J. Wallace 8'

12/26/2018

Championship · Round 24The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Millwall45%

×Draw27%

Reading28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.02

Millwall

1.36

Reading

1.02

Millwall creates 33% more chances

Season form · 185 home / 112 away

1.24

creates per match

0.99

1.04

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Millwall

1.24

Reading

0.99

allows per match

Millwall

1.04

Reading

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millwall+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

72%

Millwall or Reading

73%

Draw or Reading

55%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

21%

Reading wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

74%

Millwall 2+ goals

39%

Millwall 3+ goals

16%

Reading 1+ goals

64%

Reading 2+ goals

27%

Reading 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

61%

Reading (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.04 · 185 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.24 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Reading attack 0.99 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Millwall scores more

45%

level

27%

Reading scores more

28%

Millwall at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Cooper

Millwall · D

7.8

Match Events

8'

9'

38'

53'

57'

S. Morison← T. Elliott

63'

S. Baldock← D. Loader

67'

Liam Moore

73'

G. McCleary← Y. Meïté

76'

A. O'Brien← J. Wallace

77'

Shane Ferguson

82'

G. Osho← J. Swift

88'

Leandro Bacuna

89'

J. Skalák← S. Ferguson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallReading

Overview

42%Possession58%

17Total Shots9

8Corners4

18Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots9

3On Target2

6Off Target3

8Blocked4

13Inside Box3

4Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

303Total Passes428

225Accurate Passes351

74%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards2

4Offsides1