Millwall 1–0 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Middlesbrough

G. Hall 31' (OG)

3/20/2021

Championship · Round 38The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 63+ matches

Millwall37%

×Draw27%

Middlesbrough35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.21

Millwall

1.25

Middlesbrough

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 65 away

1.25

creates per match

1.39

1.04

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Millwall

1.25

Middlesbrough

1.39

allows per match

Millwall

1.04

Middlesbrough

1.24

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par

Middlesbrough+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

65%

Millwall or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

63%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

16%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

71%

Millwall 2+ goals

36%

Millwall 3+ goals

13%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

70%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

34%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

51%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Middlesbrough defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Middlesbrough attack 1.39 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Millwall scores more

37%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

35%

Millwall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

S. Hutchinson

Millwall · D

8.3

Match Events

20'

Marc Bola

31'

G. HallOwn goal

35'

Dan McNamara

45+2'

G. Saville← M. Tavernier

46'

A. Fletcher← C. Akpom

46'

N. Mendez-Laing← D. Spence

46'

D. Watmore← Y. Bolasie

64'

J. Böðvarsson← M. Bennett

81'

S. Williams← R. Woods

81'

T. Bradshaw← J. Wallace

81'

N. Kebano← P. McNair

86'

A. Pearce← S. Malone

87'

M. Romeo← D. McNamara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallMiddlesbrough

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots10

7Corners11

12Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots10

4On Target2

4Off Target4

1Blocked4

6Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

369Total Passes454

235Accurate Passes308

64%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0