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Middlesbrough vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Millwall
Millwall
12/14/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 21Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Middlesbrough48%
×Draw26%
Millwall27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.52
Millwall
1.07

Middlesbrough creates 42% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 32 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
1.70
Millwall
1.40

allows per match

Middlesbrough
0.75
Millwall
1.34

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.01on par
Millwall-0.15scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
73%
Middlesbrough or Millwall
74%
Draw or Millwall
52%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
24%
Millwall wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
78%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
45%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
20%
Millwall 1+ goals
66%
Millwall 2+ goals
29%
Millwall 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
64%
Millwall (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.70 + Millwall defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.52

Millwall attack 1.40 + Middlesbrough defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
48%
level
26%
Millwall scores more
27%

Middlesbrough at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Middlesbrough vs Millwall

Middlesbrough beat Millwall 1-0 in Championship on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.