Middlesbrough 1–2 Millwall: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Millwall

D. Fry 26'

J. Coburn 86', 58'

4/3/2026

Championship · Round 40Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Middlesbrough51%

×Draw25%

Millwall24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.01

Middlesbrough

1.60

Millwall

1.01

Middlesbrough creates 58% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.78

creates per match

1.35

0.67

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.78

Millwall

1.35

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.67

Millwall

1.42

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.03on par

Millwall-0.08on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

76%

Middlesbrough or Millwall

75%

Draw or Millwall

49%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

27%

Millwall wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

80%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

47%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

22%

Millwall 1+ goals

64%

Millwall 2+ goals

27%

Millwall 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

68%

Millwall (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.78 + Millwall defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.60

Millwall attack 1.35 + Middlesbrough defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

51%

level

25%

Millwall scores more

24%

Middlesbrough at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

J. Coburn

Millwall · F

8.5

Match Events

13'

Riley McGree

13'

Jake Cooper

26'

D. Fry↳ A. Browne

58'

J. Coburn↳ M. Ivanovic

64'

B. Bannan← C. De Norre

78'

A. Bangura← M. Targett

85'

M. Langstaff← M. Ivanovic

86'

J. Coburn↳ B. Bannan

89'

J. Sarmiento← C. Brittain

90+5'

D. McNamara← F. Azeez

90+5'

L. Cundle← B. Mitchell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughMillwall

Overview

61%Possession39%

32Total Shots11

3.04Expected Goals (xG)0.79

17Corners6

4Fouls14

Shots

32Total Shots11

6On Target5

8Off Target3

18Blocked3

27Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

420Total Passes272

320Accurate Passes177

76%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

0.35Goals Prevented0.35

Discipline

4Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2