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Millwall vs Ipswich — Championship 2025

Millwall
Millwall
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ipswich
Ipswich
12/26/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 23The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Millwall31%
×Draw27%
Ipswich42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.12
Ipswich
1.34

Ipswich creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.29
Ipswich
1.67

allows per match

Millwall
1.02
Ipswich
0.95

finishing

Millwall+0.03on par
Ipswich-0.31scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
58%
Millwall or Ipswich
73%
Draw or Ipswich
69%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
12%
Ipswich wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
67%
Millwall 2+ goals
31%
Millwall 3+ goals
10%
Ipswich 1+ goals
74%
Ipswich 2+ goals
39%
Ipswich 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
43%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.02 · 19 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.95 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.29 + Ipswich defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.12

Ipswich attack 1.67 + Millwall defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Millwall scores more
31%
level
27%
Ipswich scores more
42%

Ipswich at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
C. WaltonIpswichIpswich · G
8.3

Match Events

49'
Jaden Philogene-Bidace
65'
S. W. Egeli← K. McAteer
65'
C. Akpom← I. Azon
71'
J. Taylor← J. Cajuste
71'
J. Clarke← J. Philogene
72'
T. Ballo← A. Emakhu
72'
R. Leonard← B. Mitchell
82'
Z. Sturge← J. Bryan
82'
R. Bangura-Williams← C. Neghli
83'
Darnell Furlong
87'
W. Burns← M. Nunez
90'
Ryan Leonard

Possession

37%Millwall

Shots

11Millwall

Pass accuracy

44%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallIpswich
Overview
37%Possession63%
11Total Shots16
0.36Expected Goals (xG)0.81
2Corners4
11Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots16
6On Target4
2Off Target5
3Blocked7
6Inside Box7
5Outside Box9
Passing
37%Possession63%
249Total Passes435
158Accurate Passes353
63%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
0.95Goals Prevented0.95
Discipline
11Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Millwall vs Ipswich

Millwall and Ipswich drew 0-0 in Championship on December 26, 2025.

Ipswich controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at The Den in London.