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Millwall vs Ipswich — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Millwall
Millwall
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ipswich
Ipswich
7/23/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Millwall49%
×Draw25%
Ipswich26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.63
Ipswich
1.13

Millwall creates 44% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.00
Ipswich
1.25

allows per match

Millwall
1.00
Ipswich
2.25

finishing

Millwall+0.00on par
Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
74%
Millwall or Ipswich
75%
Draw or Ipswich
51%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
26%
Ipswich wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
80%
Millwall 2+ goals
48%
Millwall 3+ goals
22%
Ipswich 1+ goals
68%
Ipswich 2+ goals
31%
Ipswich 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
65%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.00 + Ipswich defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Ipswich attack 1.25 + Millwall defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Millwall scores more
49%
level
25%
Ipswich scores more
26%

Millwall at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Millwall vs Ipswich

Millwall and Ipswich drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 23, 2022.

The match was played at The Den in London.