Millwall 3–0 Ipswich: Result & Stats | Championship

Millwall

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ipswich

10/27/2018

Championship · Round 15The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Millwall36%

×Draw27%

Ipswich37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.23

Millwall

1.21

Ipswich

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 35 away

1.25

creates per match

1.43

1.04

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Millwall

1.25

Ipswich

1.43

allows per match

Millwall

1.04

Ipswich

1.18

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par

Ipswich+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

63%

Millwall or Ipswich

73%

Draw or Ipswich

64%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

15%

Ipswich wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

70%

Millwall 2+ goals

34%

Millwall 3+ goals

12%

Ipswich 1+ goals

71%

Ipswich 2+ goals

35%

Ipswich 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

49%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.18 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Ipswich defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ipswich attack 1.43 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Millwall scores more

36%

level

27%

Ipswich scores more

37%

Ipswich at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff