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Millwall vs Charlton — Championship 2025

Millwall
Millwall
Preview
15:00
Charlton
Charlton
12/19/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 22The Den
42%
Millwall
model favours
42%28%31%

Millwall sit 3, Charlton 20 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Millwall42%
×Draw28%
Charlton31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.30
Charlton
1.08

Millwall creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.34
Charlton
1.14

allows per match

Millwall
1.03
Charlton
1.26

finishing

Millwall+0.05on par
Charlton-0.47scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
69%
Millwall or Charlton
72%
Draw or Charlton
58%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
19%
Charlton wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
73%
Millwall 2+ goals
37%
Millwall 3+ goals
14%
Charlton 1+ goals
66%
Charlton 2+ goals
29%
Charlton 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
57%
Charlton (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.03 · 18 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.26 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.34 + Charlton defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.30

Charlton attack 1.14 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Millwall scores more
42%
level
28%
Charlton scores more
31%

Millwall at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Charlton fall short of their xG (0.7 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Millwall
Direct / counter-attacking
Charlton
Balanced
45%Possession46%
69%Pass accuracy71%
12.0ShotsBiggest gap11.3
1.34xG1.27
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
MillwallCharlton

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Millwall
2
Draws
0
Charlton
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 50%
4–01–12–21–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Millwall
LDWD
Charlton
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Millwall host Charlton

December 19, 2026: Millwall take on Charlton in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Millwall host Charlton at The Den.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.