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Millwall vs Brentford — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Brentford
Brentford
J. Wallace 4'
I. Toney 21' (pen)
9/26/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 3The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Millwall35%
×Draw28%
Brentford38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.17
Brentford
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 185 home / 70 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.24
Brentford
1.41

allows per match

Millwall
1.04
Brentford
1.10

finishing

Millwall+0.00on par
Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Brentford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
62%
Millwall or Brentford
72%
Draw or Brentford
65%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
14%
Brentford wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
69%
Millwall 2+ goals
33%
Millwall 3+ goals
11%
Brentford 1+ goals
71%
Brentford 2+ goals
35%
Brentford 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
48%
Brentford (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.04 · 185 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.24 + Brentford defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Brentford attack 1.41 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Millwall scores more
35%
level
28%
Brentford scores more
38%

Brentford at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
H. DalsgaardBrentfordBrentford · D
7.7

Match Events

3'
D. Thompson← R. Henry
4'
J. Wallace↳ M. Bennett
13'
Dominic Thompson
18'
Mahlon Romeo
20'
Shaun Hutchinson
21'
I. ToneyPenalty
64'
Ryan Leonard
73'
S. Benrahma← Sergi Canós
79'
C. Mahoney← T. Bradshaw
79'
J. Böðvarsson← M. Bennett
79'
M. Jensen← J. Dasilva
90+3'
M. Wallace← S. Malone

Possession

46%Millwall

Shots

9Millwall

Pass accuracy

49%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallBrentford
Overview
46%Possession54%
9Total Shots8
3Corners5
11Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots8
3On Target1
4Off Target5
2Blocked2
6Inside Box5
3Outside Box3
Passing
46%Possession54%
433Total Passes502
319Accurate Passes384
74%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls9
3Yellow Cards1

Championship: Millwall 1–1 Brentford

Millwall and Brentford drew 1-1 in Championship on September 26, 2020.

Goals: J. Wallace (4'), I. Toney (21' pen).

Brentford controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at The Den in London.