Millwall 1–1 Brentford: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Brentford

L. Gregory 15'

J. Dasilva 20'

4/19/2019

Championship · Round 43The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Millwall35%

×Draw28%

Brentford38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchBrentford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.23

Millwall

1.17

Brentford

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 185 home / 70 away

1.24

creates per match

1.41

1.04

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Millwall

1.24

Brentford

1.41

allows per match

Millwall

1.04

Brentford

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millwall+0.00on par

Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Brentford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

62%

Millwall or Brentford

72%

Draw or Brentford

65%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

14%

Brentford wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

69%

Millwall 2+ goals

33%

Millwall 3+ goals

11%

Brentford 1+ goals

71%

Brentford 2+ goals

35%

Brentford 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

48%

Brentford (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.04 · 185 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.24 + Brentford defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Brentford attack 1.41 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Millwall scores more

35%

level

28%

Brentford scores more

38%

Brentford at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

S. Ferguson

Millwall · M

7.3

Match Events

15'

L. Gregory↳ J. Wallace

20'

J. Dasilva

27'

Sergi Canos

35'

Henrik Dalsgaard

40'

T. Elliott← B. Thompson

46'

B. Marshall← J. Meredith

62'

L. Racic← Sergi Canós

67'

Tom Elliott

67'

Emiliano Marcondes

77'

R. Sawyers← E. Marcondes

82'

Romaine Sawyers

84'

C. Ogbene← O. Watkins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallBrentford

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots10

7Corners3

9Fouls8

Shots

7Total Shots10

2On Target3

4Off Target6

1Blocked1

3Inside Box2

4Outside Box8

Passing

48%Possession52%

363Total Passes425

269Accurate Passes325

74%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

–Red Cards1

1Offsides2