Millwall 2–1 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aston Villa

10/6/2018

Championship · Round 12The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Millwall32%

×Draw27%

Aston Villa40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.29

Millwall

1.12

Aston Villa

1.29

Aston Villa creates 15% more chances

Season form · 185 home / 24 away

1.24

creates per match

1.54

1.04

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Millwall

1.24

Aston Villa

1.54

allows per match

Millwall

1.04

Aston Villa

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millwall+0.00on par

Aston Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

60%

Millwall or Aston Villa

73%

Draw or Aston Villa

68%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

13%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

67%

Millwall 2+ goals

31%

Millwall 3+ goals

10%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

72%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

37%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

44%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.04 · 185 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.24 + Aston Villa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.12

Aston Villa attack 1.54 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Millwall scores more

32%

level

27%

Aston Villa scores more

40%

Aston Villa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff