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Aston Villa vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Aston Villa
Aston Villa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Millwall
Millwall
4/22/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 44Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Aston Villa44%
×Draw24%
Millwall31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aston Villa
1.61
Millwall
1.31

Aston Villa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 189 away

creates per match

Aston Villa
2.00
Millwall
1.04

allows per match

Aston Villa
1.58
Millwall
1.23

finishing

Aston Villa+0.00on par
Millwall+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw
69%
Aston Villa or Millwall
76%
Draw or Millwall
56%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+
23%
Millwall wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals
80%
Aston Villa 2+ goals
48%
Aston Villa 3+ goals
22%
Millwall 1+ goals
73%
Millwall 2+ goals
38%
Millwall 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)
59%
Millwall (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 189 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 2.00 + Millwall defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Millwall attack 1.04 + Aston Villa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aston Villa scores more
44%
level
24%
Millwall scores more
31%

Aston Villa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aston Villa vs Millwall

Aston Villa beat Millwall 1-0 in Championship on April 22, 2019.

The match was played at Villa Park in Birmingham.