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Millonarios vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2018

Millonarios
Millonarios
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
8/17/2019Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 6Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 171+ matches

Millonarios51%
×Draw27%
Internacional de Bogota22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millonarios
1.46
Internacional de Bogota
0.85

Millonarios creates 72% more chances

Season form · 191 home / 171 away

creates per match

Millonarios
1.50
Internacional de Bogota
0.90

allows per match

Millonarios
0.81
Internacional de Bogota
1.41

finishing

Millonarios+0.00on par
Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw
78%
Millonarios or Internacional de Bogota
73%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
49%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+
26%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals
77%
Millonarios 2+ goals
43%
Millonarios 3+ goals
18%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
57%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
21%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)
70%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.81 · 191 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 171 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.50 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.90 + Millonarios defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Millonarios scores more
51%
level
27%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
22%

Millonarios at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Millonarios vs Internacional de Bogota

Millonarios beat Internacional de Bogota 3-2 in Primera A on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin in Bogota.