Internacional de Bogota 1–0 Millonarios

Internacional de Bogota

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Millonarios

M. Monaco 79'

7/24/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 3Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Internacional de Bogota33%

×Draw28%

Millonarios38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.19

Internacional de Bogota

1.09

Millonarios

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.17

creates per match

1.45

0.94

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.17

Millonarios

1.45

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

0.94

Millonarios

1.01

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.33scores more

Millonarios+0.35scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

62%

Internacional de Bogota or Millonarios

72%

Draw or Millonarios

67%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

13%

Millonarios wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

66%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

30%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

10%

Millonarios 1+ goals

70%

Millonarios 2+ goals

33%

Millonarios 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

47%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.94 · 10 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.01 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.17 + Millonarios defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Millonarios attack 1.45 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

33%

level

28%

Millonarios scores more

38%

Millonarios at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Monaco

Internacional de Bogota · M

8.0

Match Events

8'

D. Ruiz

15'

Y. A. Gomez Mosquera

21'

D. S. Victoria Palacios

45'

M. Rodas

46'

D. Copete← J. Bolivar

46'

B. Montano← J. Castilla

62'

M. Monaco← S. Mayo

62'

A. Castro← J. Ramirez

62'

64'

71'

72'

76'

J. Valencia← K. Parra Atehortua

76'

F. Gonzalez← J. Micolta Piedahita

76'

B. D. Castro Espinosa← E. Mosquera

78'

B. Montano

79'

M. Monaco↳ J. Valencia

85'

S. Mosquera← H. Palacios

86'

S. Giordana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalMillonarios

Overview

26%Possession74%

5Total Shots22

0Corners6

10Fouls13

Shots

5Total Shots22

3On Target6

2Off Target10

0Blocked6

2Inside Box15

3Outside Box7

Passing

26%Possession74%

195Total Passes536

133Accurate Passes480

68%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

2Offsides2

Primera A: Internacional de Bogota 1–0 Millonarios

Internacional de Bogota beat Millonarios 1-0 in Primera A on July 24, 2025.

Goals: M. Monaco (79').

Millonarios controlled possession (74%) and registered 22 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo.

Internacional de Bogota vs Millonarios — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Internacional de Bogota 1–0 Millonarios