Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Internacional de Bogota vs Millonarios — Primera A 2024

Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Millonarios
Millonarios
K. Parra Atehortua 82', 66'
D. Moncada 54'
L. Castro 74', 59'
2/22/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 8Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Internacional de Bogota33%
×Draw28%
Millonarios38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Bogota
1.09
Millonarios
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.17
Millonarios
1.45

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota
0.94
Millonarios
1.01

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.33scores more
Millonarios+0.35scores more

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Millonarios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw
62%
Internacional de Bogota or Millonarios
72%
Draw or Millonarios
67%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
13%
Millonarios wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
66%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
30%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
10%
Millonarios 1+ goals
70%
Millonarios 2+ goals
33%
Millonarios 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
47%
Millonarios (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.94 · 10 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.01 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.17 + Millonarios defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Millonarios attack 1.45 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more
33%
level
28%
Millonarios scores more
38%

Millonarios at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
K. Parra AtehortuaInternacional de BogotaInternacional de Bogota · M
9.2

Match Events

16'
L. Castro
19'
C. Vivas
42'
D. Quinones
52'
R. Urena
54'
D. Moncada↳ D. Quinones
59'
L. Castro
61'
J. Hurtado
61'
F. Sanguinetti
63'
B. D. Castro Espinosa← J. Hurtado
64'
A. Llinas
66'
K. Parra Atehortua↳ F. Sanguinetti
70'
S. Mayo← F. Bone
74'
L. Castro↳ C. Sarabia
76'
J. Caballero← D. Moncada
76'
A. Castro← S. Valencia
76'
J. Angulo← C. Sarabia
82'
K. Parra Atehortua↳ S. Mayo
83'
M. Rodas← K. Parra Atehortua
86'
S. Vega← D. Silva
86'
M. Samuel← M. Garcia
90'
W. Farinez

Possession

51%Internacional

Shots

13Internacional

Pass accuracy

51%Internacional

Statistics

InternacionalMillonarios
Overview
51%Possession49%
13Total Shots18
0.95Expected Goals (xG)1.24
5Corners2
11Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots18
5On Target4
5Off Target11
3Blocked3
4Inside Box9
9Outside Box9
Passing
51%Possession49%
352Total Passes350
307Accurate Passes291
87%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
-1.91Goals Prevented-1.91
Discipline
11Fouls11
4Yellow Cards4
1Offsides2

Primera A: Internacional de Bogota 3–2 Millonarios

Internacional de Bogota beat Millonarios 3-2 in Primera A on February 22, 2026.

Goals: D. Moncada (54'), L. Castro (59', 74'), K. Parra Atehortua (66', 82').

Internacional de Bogota controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo.