Millonarios 1–0 Deportivo Pasto: Result & Stats

Millonarios

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Pasto

S. Giordana 30'

9/11/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Millonarios44%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Pasto28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillonariosExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.95

Millonarios

1.27

Deportivo Pasto

0.95

Millonarios creates 34% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.44

creates per match

1.24

0.66

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Millonarios

1.44

Deportivo Pasto

1.24

allows per match

Millonarios

0.66

Deportivo Pasto

1.09

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Millonarios+0.47scores more

Deportivo Pasto+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw

72%

Millonarios or Deportivo Pasto

71%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

56%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+

20%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals

72%

Millonarios 2+ goals

36%

Millonarios 3+ goals

14%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

61%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

25%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)

61%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.66 · 11 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.44 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.24 + Millonarios defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Millonarios scores more

44%

level

29%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

28%

Millonarios at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

D. Novoa

Millonarios · G

8.3

Match Events

16'

John Méndez

22'

Stiven Vega

30'

S. Giordana↳ M. Diaz Samuel

41'

Juan Manuel Valencia

42'

Jorge Arias

46'

J. Pereira← S. Vega

46'

F. Jaramillo← J. Valencia

46'

47'

53'

55'

60'

71'

B. Cuero← B. D. Castro Espinosa

71'

L. Castro← S. Giordana

71'

D. Camacho← P. Preciado

75'

Danovis Banguero

77'

S. Viveros← A. Castro

77'

W. F. Ordonez← J. Mendez

81'

E. Mosquera← J. Hurtado

87'

Edwin Mosquera

88'

J. Rivas← J. Rios

90+6'

Nicolas Gil

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillonariosDeportivo

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots14

5Corners2

19Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots14

6On Target6

5Off Target5

1Blocked3

9Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

300Total Passes350

225Accurate Passes276

75%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls9

6Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1