Deportivo Pasto 0–0 Millonarios: Result & Stats

Deportivo Pasto

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Millonarios

12/9/2024

Primera A · Clausura - Quadrangular - 6Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Deportivo Pasto38%

×Draw30%

Millonarios32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PastoExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.00

Deportivo Pasto

1.11

Millonarios

1.00

Deportivo Pasto creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.06

creates per match

1.16

0.84

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.06

Millonarios

1.16

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto

0.84

Millonarios

1.16

+0.72scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.72scores more

Millonarios+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw

68%

Deportivo Pasto or Millonarios

70%

Draw or Millonarios

62%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

15%

Millonarios wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

10%

Millonarios 1+ goals

63%

Millonarios 2+ goals

26%

Millonarios 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

54%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.84 · 9 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.06 + Millonarios defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Millonarios attack 1.16 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more

38%

level

30%

Millonarios scores more

32%

Deportivo Pasto at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

A. Llinás

Millonarios · D

7.7

Match Events

46'

R. Vanegas← S. Tréllez

58'

Diego Martínez

59'

Ray Vanegas

62'

D. Ruiz← J. Pereira

65'

J. Valencia← C. Sarabia

65'

J. Córdoba← D. Silva

72'

J. Castilla← R. Vanegas

77'

S. Giordana← D. Banguero

80'

M. Castaño← G. Charrupí

83'

Daniel Ruiz

83'

C. Ayala← I. Alba

90+5'

Camilo Ayala

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoMillonarios

Overview

45%Possession55%

5Total Shots16

3Corners4

8Fouls8

Shots

5Total Shots16

2On Target2

2Off Target10

1Blocked4

3Inside Box11

2Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

327Total Passes403

262Accurate Passes328

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2