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Millonarios vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2025

Millonarios
Millonarios
Preview
23:10
Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
8/17/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 5
Big match
50%
Millonarios
model favours
50%27%23%

Millonarios score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Millonarios50%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Cali23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millonarios
1.42
Deportivo Cali
0.88

Millonarios creates 61% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 38 away

creates per match

Millonarios
1.50
Deportivo Cali
0.95

allows per match

Millonarios
0.81
Deportivo Cali
1.34

finishing

Millonarios+0.00on par
Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Deportivo Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw
77%
Millonarios or Deportivo Cali
73%
Draw or Deportivo Cali
50%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+
24%
Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals
76%
Millonarios 2+ goals
41%
Millonarios 3+ goals
17%
Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)
68%
Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.50 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Deportivo Cali attack 0.95 + Millonarios defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Millonarios scores more
50%
level
27%
Deportivo Cali scores more
23%

Millonarios at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo Cali have won 4 in a row
  • Deportivo Cali score first in only 20% of matches
  • 80% of Deportivo Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 77% of Millonarios’s matches
  • Millonarios raise their game against the top half — 43% wins vs the upper half, only 25% vs the lower
  • 69% of Millonarios’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Millonarios
Attack-heavy
Deportivo Cali
Defensively solid
51%Possession50%
80%Pass accuracy80%
15.1Shots12.8
1.33xGBiggest gap0.96
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
MillonariosDeportivo Cali

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Millonarios
3
Draws
1
Deportivo Cali
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 60%
0–03–31–31–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Millonarios
LWLDD
Cali
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Millonarios face Deportivo Cali (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Millonarios hosting Deportivo Cali. Match starts August 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.