Deportivo Cali 0–1 Millonarios: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Millonarios

L. Castro 14'

10/5/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 13Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Cali31%

×Draw28%

Millonarios40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.23

Deportivo Cali

1.04

Millonarios

1.23

Millonarios creates 18% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.06

creates per match

1.45

1.02

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.06

Millonarios

1.45

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

1.02

Millonarios

1.01

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Cali-0.26scores less

Millonarios+0.35scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

60%

Deportivo Cali or Millonarios

72%

Draw or Millonarios

69%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

12%

Millonarios wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

9%

Millonarios 1+ goals

71%

Millonarios 2+ goals

35%

Millonarios 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

43%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.02 · 10 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.01 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.06 + Millonarios defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Millonarios attack 1.45 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

31%

level

28%

Millonarios scores more

40%

Millonarios at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

Á. Montero

Millonarios · G

7.7

Match Events

14'

L. Castro↳ J. Córdoba

41'

Danovis Banguero

46'

C. Colmán← F. Ángel

46'

N. Villareal← D. Mantilla

55'

Á. Plata← A. Estupiñán

55'

J. Cantillo← F. Montero

62'

Stiven Vega

63'

J. Ramírez← D. Silva

67'

Delvin Alfonzo

67'

J. Valencia← O. Acosta

70'

Neyser Villareal

73'

S. Giordana← L. Castro

73'

C. Sarabia← D. Alfonzo

78'

78'

79'

79'

79'

79'

82'

A. Llinás← J. Córdoba

86'

Daniel Giraldo

90+2'

Juan Camilo Cantillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoMillonarios

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots8

7Corners3

9Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots8

3On Target2

7Off Target5

2Blocked1

6Inside Box6

6Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

414Total Passes347

313Accurate Passes251

76%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards9

0Red Cards1

Primera A: Deportivo Cali 0–1 Millonarios

Millonarios beat Deportivo Cali 1-0 in Primera A on October 5, 2024.

Goals: L. Castro (14').

Deportivo Cali controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.

Deportivo Cali vs Millonarios — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Deportivo Cali 0–1 Millonarios