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Deportivo Cali vs Millonarios — Primera A 2025

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Millonarios
Millonarios
A. Estupinan 70'
E. Rodriguez 22'
J. C. Caldera Alvis 1'
S. Giordana 90'
2/23/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 6Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Deportivo Cali40%
×Draw28%
Millonarios32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.23
Millonarios
1.07

Deportivo Cali creates 15% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.09
Millonarios
1.29

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
0.86
Millonarios
1.38

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par
Millonarios+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Millonarios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
68%
Deportivo Cali or Millonarios
72%
Draw or Millonarios
60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
17%
Millonarios wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
71%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
35%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
13%
Millonarios 1+ goals
66%
Millonarios 2+ goals
29%
Millonarios 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
55%
Millonarios (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.86 · 35 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.09 + Millonarios defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Millonarios attack 1.29 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
40%
level
28%
Millonarios scores more
32%

Deportivo Cali at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
A. EstupinanDeportivo CaliDeportivo Cali · M
8.7

Match Events

1'
J. C. Caldera Alvis
22'
E. Rodriguez
32'
Sergio Mosquera
33'
Yeison Gordillo
36'
Andrey Estupiñán
40'
Javier Reina
46'
H. Palacios← D. Alfonzo
46'
J. Arias← N. Giraldo
46'
D. Mantilla← J. Valencia
47'
Victor Mejia
51'
C. Graciano← E. Rodriguez
70'
A. Estupinan
73'
Jarlan Barrera
75'
J. E. Cordoba Mosquera← D. Ruiz
75'
S. Giordana← R. Falcao
76'
I. Venecia← V. Mejia
76'
J. Galindo← A. Estupinan
77'
G. Cabezas← Javier Reina
82'
J. Arango← J. Barrera
89'
Jorge Arias
90'
S. Giordana

Possession

44%Deportivo

Shots

11Deportivo

Pass accuracy

49%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoMillonarios
Overview
44%Possession56%
11Total Shots12
3Corners4
20Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots12
6On Target3
3Off Target7
2Blocked2
8Inside Box8
3Outside Box4
Passing
44%Possession56%
329Total Passes418
263Accurate Passes341
80%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
20Fouls12
5Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Deportivo Cali vs Millonarios

Deportivo Cali beat Millonarios 3-1 in Primera A on February 23, 2025.

Goals: J. C. Caldera Alvis (1'), E. Rodriguez (22'), A. Estupinan (70'), S. Giordana (90').

Millonarios controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.