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Millonarios vs Deportes Tolima — Primera A 2018

Millonarios
Millonarios
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
3/2/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 7Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 191+ matches

Millonarios42%
×Draw28%
Deportes Tolima30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millonarios
1.25
Deportes Tolima
1.02

Millonarios creates 23% more chances

Season form · 191 home / 196 away

creates per match

Millonarios
1.50
Deportes Tolima
1.22

allows per match

Millonarios
0.81
Deportes Tolima
1.01

finishing

Millonarios+0.00on par
Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Deportes Tolima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw
70%
Millonarios or Deportes Tolima
72%
Draw or Deportes Tolima
58%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+
18%
Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals
71%
Millonarios 2+ goals
36%
Millonarios 3+ goals
13%
Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
64%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
27%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)
58%
Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.81 · 191 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 196 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.50 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportes Tolima attack 1.22 + Millonarios defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Millonarios scores more
42%
level
28%
Deportes Tolima scores more
30%

Millonarios at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Millonarios 2–0 Deportes Tolima

Millonarios beat Deportes Tolima 2-0 in Primera A on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín in Bogotá, D.C..