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Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios — Primera A 2018

Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Millonarios
Millonarios
2/3/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 4Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Deportes Tolima40%
×Draw29%
Millonarios31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Tolima
1.17
Millonarios
0.99

Deportes Tolima creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Deportes Tolima
1.31
Millonarios
1.39

allows per match

Deportes Tolima
0.60
Millonarios
1.03

finishing

Deportes Tolima-0.45scores less
Millonarios+0.44scores more

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

Millonarios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw
69%
Deportes Tolima or Millonarios
71%
Draw or Millonarios
60%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
17%
Millonarios wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
69%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
33%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
11%
Millonarios 1+ goals
63%
Millonarios 2+ goals
26%
Millonarios 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
56%
Millonarios (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.60 · 7 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.03 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.31 + Millonarios defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.17

Millonarios attack 1.39 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more
40%
level
29%
Millonarios scores more
31%

Deportes Tolima at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Deportes Tolima 2–0 Millonarios

Deportes Tolima beat Millonarios 2-0 in Primera A on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro in Ibagué.