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Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar — Primera A 2018

Millonarios
Millonarios
Preview
20:30
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
11/8/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 19
Big match
54%
Millonarios
model favours
54%26%19%

Millonarios score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 167+ matches

Millonarios54%
×Draw26%
Alianza Valledupar19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millonarios
1.50
Alianza Valledupar
0.78

Millonarios creates 92% more chances

Season form · 191 home / 167 away

creates per match

Millonarios
1.50
Alianza Valledupar
0.75

allows per match

Millonarios
0.81
Alianza Valledupar
1.50

finishing

Millonarios+0.00on par
Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw
81%
Millonarios or Alianza Valledupar
74%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
46%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+
28%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals
78%
Millonarios 2+ goals
44%
Millonarios 3+ goals
19%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
54%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
18%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)
74%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.81 · 191 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 167 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.50 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.75 + Millonarios defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Millonarios scores more
54%
level
26%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
19%

Millonarios at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 77% of Millonarios’s matches
  • 69% of Millonarios’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Millonarios
Attack-heavy
Alianza Valledupar
Balanced
52%Possession49%
80%Pass accuracy79%
14.5Shots12.1
1.45xGBiggest gap0.98
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
MillonariosAlianza Valledupar

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Millonarios
2
Draws
3
Alianza Valledupar
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 60%
2–20–32–01–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Millonarios
LWLDD
Valledupar
WLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Millonarios face Alianza Valledupar (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Millonarios hosting Alianza Valledupar. Match starts November 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.