Millonarios 2–0 Alianza Valledupar: Result & Stats

Millonarios

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alianza Valledupar

L. Marimon 75'

L. Castro 19' (pen)

3/30/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 11Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Millonarios53%

×Draw27%

Alianza Valledupar20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillonariosExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.78

Millonarios

1.46

Alianza Valledupar

0.78

Millonarios creates 87% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 48 away

1.49

creates per match

0.75

0.81

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Millonarios

1.49

Alianza Valledupar

0.75

allows per match

Millonarios

0.81

Alianza Valledupar

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millonarios+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw

80%

Millonarios or Alianza Valledupar

73%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

47%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+

27%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals

77%

Millonarios 2+ goals

43%

Millonarios 3+ goals

18%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

54%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

18%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)

73%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.81 · 37 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.49 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.75 + Millonarios defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Millonarios scores more

53%

level

27%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

20%

Millonarios at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

D. Banguero

Millonarios · D

8.2

Match Events

10'

Jair CastilloCard upgrade

11'

Jair Castillo

19'

L. CastroPenalty

29'

Jorge AriasPenalty confirmed

29'

John García

30'

R. Manjarres← F. Pardo

31'

L. Perez← E. Torres

34'

Kevin Palacios

43'

D. Ruiz← L. Castro

45+14'

Luis PérezGoal cancelled

46'

J. Wallens← J. Chaverra

60'

H. Palacios← S. Navarro

61'

R. R. Colpa Bolano← D. A. Mendoza Benitez

71'

S. A. Aponza Cantonil← W. Fernandez

75'

L. Marimon↳ N. Villarreal

80'

F. Charrupi← J. N. Arevalo Chaparro

81'

S. Mosquera← K. Palacios

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillonariosAlianza

Overview

71%Possession29%

24Total Shots2

4Corners3

9Fouls4

Shots

24Total Shots2

7On Target1

10Off Target1

7Blocked0

13Inside Box0

11Outside Box2

Passing

71%Possession29%

498Total Passes201

440Accurate Passes124

88%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls4

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1