Alianza Valledupar 2–1 Millonarios: Result & Stats

Alianza Valledupar

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Millonarios

M. Martínez 79' (pen)

A. Rentería 54'

D. Ruiz 8'

7/28/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 3Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Alianza Valledupar32%

×Draw27%

Millonarios41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.34

Alianza Valledupar

1.16

Millonarios

1.34

Millonarios creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

1.31

creates per match

1.45

1.23

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.31

Millonarios

1.45

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.23

Millonarios

1.01

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Alianza Valledupar-0.40scores less

Millonarios+0.35scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

59%

Alianza Valledupar or Millonarios

73%

Draw or Millonarios

68%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

13%

Millonarios wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

69%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

32%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

11%

Millonarios 1+ goals

74%

Millonarios 2+ goals

39%

Millonarios 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

44%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 11 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.01 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Millonarios defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Millonarios attack 1.45 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

32%

level

27%

Millonarios scores more

41%

Millonarios at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

P. Franco

Alianza Valledupar · D

7.6

Match Events

8'

43'

43'

54'

63'

D. Mantilla← S. Giordana

63'

J. Ramírez← D. Silva

63'

K. Palacios← D. Banguero

67'

M. Martínez← A. Rentería

67'

J. Muñoz← E. Torres

75'

M. Gil← R. Manjarrés

78'

Kevin Palacios

79'

M. MartínezPenalty

84'

N. Árevalo← D. Giraldo

84'

J. Welch← F. Charrupí

85'

90+3'

90+2'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaMillonarios

Overview

38%Possession62%

10Total Shots4

5Corners2

13Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots4

2On Target2

6Off Target0

2Blocked2

7Inside Box1

3Outside Box3

Passing

38%Possession62%

312Total Passes529

242Accurate Passes453

78%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1

Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 2–1 Millonarios

Alianza Valledupar beat Millonarios 2-1 in Primera A on July 28, 2024.

Goals: D. Ruiz (8'), A. Rentería (54'), M. Martínez (79' pen).

Millonarios controlled possession (62%) and registered 4 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.

Alianza Valledupar vs Millonarios — Primera A 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 2–1 Millonarios