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Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar — Copa Colombia 2019

Millonarios
Millonariosadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
9/29/2023Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Quarter-finalsEstadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Millonarios60%
×Draw24%
Alianza Valledupar16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millonarios
1.67
Alianza Valledupar
0.72

Millonarios creates 132% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Millonarios
1.67
Alianza Valledupar
0.84

allows per match

Millonarios
0.61
Alianza Valledupar
1.68

finishing

Millonarios+0.00on par
Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw
84%
Millonarios or Alianza Valledupar
76%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
40%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+
34%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals
81%
Millonarios 2+ goals
50%
Millonarios 3+ goals
23%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
51%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
16%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)
79%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.67 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.84 + Millonarios defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Millonarios scores more
60%
level
24%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
16%

Millonarios at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar

Millonarios beat Alianza Valledupar 2-0 in Copa Colombia on September 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín in Bogotá, D.C..