Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Milling Hotspurs vs Green Mamba — Premier League 2020

Milling Hotspurs
Milling Hotspurs
FT
1 – 1
Green Mamba
Green Mamba
6/10/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Milling Hotspurs26%
×Draw27%
Green Mamba47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milling Hotspurs
1.00
Green Mamba
1.45

Green Mamba creates 45% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 84 away

creates per match

Milling Hotspurs
1.14
Green Mamba
1.49

allows per match

Milling Hotspurs
1.41
Green Mamba
0.86

finishing

Milling Hotspurs+0.00on par
Green Mamba+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milling Hotspurs ↓

Green Mamba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Milling Hotspurs or draw
53%
Milling Hotspurs or Green Mamba
73%
Draw or Green Mamba
74%

Winning margin

Milling Hotspurs wins by 2+
9%
Green Mamba wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Milling Hotspurs 1+ goals
63%
Milling Hotspurs 2+ goals
26%
Milling Hotspurs 3+ goals
8%
Green Mamba 1+ goals
77%
Green Mamba 2+ goals
42%
Green Mamba 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Milling Hotspurs (draw refunded)
35%
Green Mamba (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milling Hotspurs at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Green Mamba away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milling Hotspurs attack 1.14 + Green Mamba defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Milling Hotspurs defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Milling Hotspurs scores more
26%
level
27%
Green Mamba scores more
47%

Green Mamba at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Green Mamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Milling Hotspurs vs Green Mamba

Milling Hotspurs and Green Mamba drew 1-1 in Premier League on June 10, 2021.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.