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Green Mamba vs Milling Hotspurs — Premier League 2020

Green Mamba
Green Mamba
FT
1 – 1
Milling Hotspurs
Milling Hotspurs
12/12/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Mhlume Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Green Mamba50%
×Draw27%
Milling Hotspurs24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Mamba
1.46
Milling Hotspurs
0.91

Green Mamba creates 60% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 30 away

creates per match

Green Mamba
1.49
Milling Hotspurs
0.83

allows per match

Green Mamba
0.98
Milling Hotspurs
1.43

finishing

Green Mamba+0.00on par
Milling Hotspurs+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Mamba ↓

Milling Hotspurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Green Mamba or draw
76%
Green Mamba or Milling Hotspurs
73%
Draw or Milling Hotspurs
50%

Winning margin

Green Mamba wins by 2+
25%
Milling Hotspurs wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Green Mamba 1+ goals
77%
Green Mamba 2+ goals
43%
Green Mamba 3+ goals
18%
Milling Hotspurs 1+ goals
60%
Milling Hotspurs 2+ goals
23%
Milling Hotspurs 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Green Mamba (draw refunded)
68%
Milling Hotspurs (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Mamba at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.98 · 85 matches

Milling Hotspurs away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Milling Hotspurs defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Milling Hotspurs attack 0.83 + Green Mamba defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Green Mamba scores more
50%
level
27%
Milling Hotspurs scores more
24%

Green Mamba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Green Mamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Mamba vs Milling Hotspurs

Green Mamba and Milling Hotspurs drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Mhlume Stadium in Siteki.