Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Milling Hotspurs vs Black Swallows — Premier League 2020

Milling Hotspurs
Milling Hotspurs
FT
1 – 1
Black Swallows
Black Swallows
8/7/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Milling Hotspurs49%
×Draw25%
Black Swallows26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milling Hotspurs
1.57
Black Swallows
1.07

Milling Hotspurs creates 47% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 15 away

creates per match

Milling Hotspurs
1.14
Black Swallows
0.73

allows per match

Milling Hotspurs
1.41
Black Swallows
2.00

finishing

Milling Hotspurs+0.00on par
Black Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milling Hotspurs ↓

Black Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Milling Hotspurs or draw
74%
Milling Hotspurs or Black Swallows
75%
Draw or Black Swallows
51%

Winning margin

Milling Hotspurs wins by 2+
25%
Black Swallows wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Milling Hotspurs 1+ goals
79%
Milling Hotspurs 2+ goals
46%
Milling Hotspurs 3+ goals
21%
Black Swallows 1+ goals
66%
Black Swallows 2+ goals
29%
Black Swallows 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Milling Hotspurs (draw refunded)
65%
Black Swallows (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milling Hotspurs at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Black Swallows away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milling Hotspurs attack 1.14 + Black Swallows defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Black Swallows attack 0.73 + Milling Hotspurs defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Milling Hotspurs scores more
49%
level
25%
Black Swallows scores more
26%

Milling Hotspurs at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Milling Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Milling Hotspurs 1–1 Black Swallows

Milling Hotspurs and Black Swallows drew 1-1 in Premier League on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.