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Black Swallows vs Milling Hotspurs — Premier League 2020

Black Swallows
Black Swallows
FT
1 – 4
Milling Hotspurs
Milling Hotspurs
5/1/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Killarney Sports Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Black Swallows37%
×Draw26%
Milling Hotspurs37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Swallows
1.38
Milling Hotspurs
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Black Swallows
1.33
Milling Hotspurs
0.83

allows per match

Black Swallows
1.93
Milling Hotspurs
1.43

finishing

Black Swallows+0.00on par
Milling Hotspurs+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Swallows ↓

Milling Hotspurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Black Swallows or draw
63%
Black Swallows or Milling Hotspurs
74%
Draw or Milling Hotspurs
63%

Winning margin

Black Swallows wins by 2+
17%
Milling Hotspurs wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Black Swallows 1+ goals
75%
Black Swallows 2+ goals
40%
Black Swallows 3+ goals
16%
Milling Hotspurs 1+ goals
75%
Milling Hotspurs 2+ goals
40%
Milling Hotspurs 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Black Swallows (draw refunded)
50%
Milling Hotspurs (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Swallows at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Milling Hotspurs away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Swallows attack 1.33 + Milling Hotspurs defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Milling Hotspurs attack 0.83 + Black Swallows defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Black Swallows scores more
37%
level
26%
Milling Hotspurs scores more
37%

Black Swallows at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Black Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Black Swallows vs Milling Hotspurs

Milling Hotspurs beat Black Swallows 4-1 in Premier League on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Killarney Sports Field in Piggs Peak.