Milénium 0–5 Humenné: Result & Stats

Milénium

FT

0 – 5

Humenné

5/30/2021

3. liga - East · East - 13Futbalový štadión Bardejovská Nová Ves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Milénium12%

×Draw16%

Humenné72%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiléniumExpected goals in this matchHumenné

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

2.71

Milénium

1.02

Humenné

2.71

Humenné creates 166% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

1.29

creates per match

3.00

2.43

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Milénium

1.29

Humenné

3.00

allows per match

Milénium

2.43

Humenné

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milénium+0.00on par

Humenné+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milénium ↓

Humenné →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–17%

0–29%

0–38%

0–46%

1

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Milénium or draw

28%

Milénium or Humenné

84%

Draw or Humenné

88%

Winning margin

Milénium wins by 2+

4%

Humenné wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Milénium 1+ goals

64%

Milénium 2+ goals

27%

Milénium 3+ goals

8%

Humenné 1+ goals

93%

Humenné 2+ goals

75%

Humenné 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Milénium (draw refunded)

14%

Humenné (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milénium at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Humenné away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milénium attack 1.29 + Humenné defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.02

Humenné attack 3.00 + Milénium defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Milénium scores more

12%

level

16%

Humenné scores more

72%

Humenné at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Humenné will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff