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Humenné vs Milénium — 3. liga - East 2020

Humenné
Humenné
CANC
15:00
Milénium
Milénium
6/6/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Humenné85%
×Draw10%
Milénium5%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humenné
3.29
Milénium
0.72

Humenné creates 357% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 8 away

creates per match

Humenné
3.82
Milénium
0.75

allows per match

Humenné
0.68
Milénium
2.75

finishing

Humenné+0.00on par
Milénium+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humenné ↓

Milénium →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Humenné or draw
95%
Humenné or Milénium
90%
Draw or Milénium
15%

Winning margin

Humenné wins by 2+
68%
Milénium wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Humenné 1+ goals
96%
Humenné 2+ goals
83%
Humenné 3+ goals
62%
Milénium 1+ goals
51%
Milénium 2+ goals
16%
Milénium 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Humenné (draw refunded)
94%
Milénium (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humenné at home — creates 3.82, concedes 0.68 · 22 matches

Milénium away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humenné attack 3.82 + Milénium defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.29

Milénium attack 0.75 + Humenné defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Humenné scores more
85%
level
10%
Milénium scores more
5%

Humenné at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Humenné will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Humenné vs Milénium — Match Preview

Humenné face Milénium on June 6, 2021 in this 3. liga - East fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.