Milan U19 3–0 Dinamo Zagreb U19: Result & Stats

Milan U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dinamo Zagreb U19

M. Lazetić 90+3'

C. Traorè 45'

Y. El Hilali 26'

9/14/2022

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Puma House of Football - Centro P. Vismara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Milan U1966%

×Draw20%

Dinamo Zagreb U1914%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milan U19Expected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.82

Milan U19

2.04

Dinamo Zagreb U19

0.82

Milan U19 creates 149% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

2.18

creates per match

0.91

0.73

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Milan U19

2.18

Dinamo Zagreb U19

0.91

allows per match

Milan U19

0.73

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milan U19+0.00on par

Dinamo Zagreb U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milan U19 ↓

Dinamo Zagreb U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Milan U19 or draw

86%

Milan U19 or Dinamo Zagreb U19

80%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb U19

34%

Winning margin

Milan U19 wins by 2+

41%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Milan U19 1+ goals

87%

Milan U19 2+ goals

60%

Milan U19 3+ goals

33%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 1+ goals

56%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 2+ goals

20%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Milan U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milan U19 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Dinamo Zagreb U19 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milan U19 attack 2.18 + Dinamo Zagreb U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.04

Dinamo Zagreb U19 attack 0.91 + Milan U19 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Milan U19 scores more

66%

level

20%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 scores more

14%

Milan U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Milan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Y. El Hilali↳ C. Traorè

45'

C. Traorè↳ Y. El Hilali

46'

M. Ruškovački← I. Cvetko

46'

46'

61'

61'

67'

M. Lazetić← J. Longhi

68'

F. Scotti← C. Traorè

74'

F. Čuljak← A. Krdžalić

74'

M. Tonon← M. Brkljača

86'

L. Vrbancic

89'

C. Foglio← Y. El Hilali

90+3'

M. Lazetić↳ L. Nava

Milan

Dinamo

1

4

5

2

3

▼

Cvetko

11

▼

Brkljača

9

▼

Topić

10

▼

Krdžalić

8

Lukanić

6

▼

Čaić

7

Rukavina

69

A

Nava

5

▼

3

2

73

18

22

14

▼

Pluvio

11

⚽A

▼

Traorè

10

⚽A

▼

Hilali

80

▼

Longhi

Manager: I. Abate

61'▲A. Gala←▼N. Pluvio

61'▲A. Bakoune←▼J. Simic

67'▲M. Lazetić←▼J. Longhi

68'▲F. Scotti←▼C. Traorè

89'▲C. Foglio←▼Y. El Hilali

Milan U19 substitutes

8Gala23Bakoune12Lazetić58Scotti17Foglio95Torriani97Bartesaghi

Manager: I. Senzen

46'▲M. Ruškovački←▼I. Cvetko

46'▲L. Vrbančić←▼V. Čaić

46'▲M. Šakota←▼F. Topić

74'▲F. Čuljak←▼A. Krdžalić

74'▲M. Tonon←▼M. Brkljača

Dinamo Zagreb U19 substitutes

13Ruškovački17Vrbančić18Šakota15Čuljak16Tonon12Zrilić14Katalinić