Dinamo Zagreb U19 1–2 Milan U19: Result & Stats

Dinamo Zagreb U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Milan U19

M. Šakota 29'

G. Alesi 77' (pen)

J. Longhi 25'

10/25/2022

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Stadion Kranjčevićeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb U1959%

×Draw23%

Milan U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Zagreb U19Expected goals in this matchMilan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.86

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.77

Milan U19

0.86

Dinamo Zagreb U19 creates 106% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.64

creates per match

0.82

0.91

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.64

Milan U19

0.82

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb U19

0.91

Milan U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb U19+0.00on par

Milan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb U19 ↓

Milan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb U19 or draw

82%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 or Milan U19

77%

Draw or Milan U19

41%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb U19 wins by 2+

33%

Milan U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb U19 1+ goals

83%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 2+ goals

53%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 3+ goals

26%

Milan U19 1+ goals

58%

Milan U19 2+ goals

21%

Milan U19 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Milan U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb U19 at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Milan U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb U19 attack 1.64 + Milan U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.77

Milan U19 attack 0.82 + Dinamo Zagreb U19 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dinamo Zagreb U19 scores more

59%

level

23%

Milan U19 scores more

18%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

C. Nsiala Makengo

25'

29'

39'

45+2'

46'

50'

56'

M. Sakota

59'

L. Lukanic

64'

D. Stalmach

66'

F. Scotti← C. Traorè

66'

A. Gala← D. Stalmach

72'

L. Vrbančić← M. Šakota

72'

V. Kanižaj← M. Brkljača

77'

G. AlesiPenalty

83'

P. Majdandžić← F. Topić

83'

L. Ilecic← L. Lukanić

83'

J. Gurlica← M. Ruškovački

88'

F. Mangiameli← J. Longhi

90'

A. Bakoune

90+3'

A. Gala

90+3'

P. Parmiggiani← G. Alesi

Dinamo

Milan

69

Nava

5

A

▼

3

6

73

16

▼

Stalmach

18

Zeroli

22

Eletu

11

▼

Traorè

7

⚽

▼

Alesi

80

⚽

▼

1

4

5

3

▼

Ruškovačk

2

Gubijan

8

▼

Brkljača

11

▼

Topić

6

Krdžalić

10

▼

Lukanić

7

Rukavina

9

⚽

▼

Šakota

Manager: I. Senzen

72'▲L. Vrbančić←▼M. Šakota

72'▲V. Kanižaj←▼M. Brkljača

83'▲P. Majdandžić←▼F. Topić

83'▲L. Ilecic←▼L. Lukanić

83'▲J. Gurlica←▼M. Ruškovački

Dinamo Zagreb U19 substitutes

17Vrbančić18Kanižaj13Majdandžić16Ilecic14Gurlica12Klarin15Tonon

Manager: I. Abate

46'▲A. Bakoune←▼J. Simic

66'▲F. Scotti←▼C. Traorè

66'▲A. Gala←▼D. Stalmach

88'▲F. Mangiameli←▼J. Longhi

90+3'▲P. Parmiggiani←▼G. Alesi

Milan U19 substitutes

23Bakoune58Scotti8Gala90Mangiameli57Parmiggiani95Torriani14Pluvio