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Milan U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Milan U19
Milan U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Borussia Dortmund U19
Borussia Dortmund U19
11/28/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Puma House of Football - Centro P. Vismara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Milan U1955%
×Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milan U19
2.00
Borussia Dortmund U19
1.23

Milan U19 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 23 away

creates per match

Milan U19
2.18
Borussia Dortmund U19
1.74

allows per match

Milan U19
0.73
Borussia Dortmund U19
1.83

finishing

Milan U19+0.00on par
Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milan U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Milan U19 or draw
77%
Milan U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19
78%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19
45%

Winning margin

Milan U19 wins by 2+
32%
Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Milan U19 1+ goals
86%
Milan U19 2+ goals
59%
Milan U19 3+ goals
32%
Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals
71%
Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals
35%
Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Milan U19 (draw refunded)
70%
Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milan U19 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milan U19 attack 2.18 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.00

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 1.74 + Milan U19 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Milan U19 scores more
55%
level
22%
Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more
23%

Milan U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Milan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Milan U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19

Milan U19 beat Borussia Dortmund U19 4-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at Puma House of Football - Centro P. Vismara in Milano.