Borussia Dortmund U19 1–2 Milan U19: Result & Stats

Borussia Dortmund U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Milan U19

10/4/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1954%

×Draw23%

Milan U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia Dortmund U19Expected goals in this matchMilan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.18

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.88

Milan U19

1.18

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

1.84

creates per match

0.82

1.53

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.84

Milan U19

0.82

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.53

Milan U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Milan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

Milan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw

76%

Borussia Dortmund U19 or Milan U19

77%

Draw or Milan U19

46%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

31%

Milan U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

85%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

56%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

29%

Milan U19 1+ goals

69%

Milan U19 2+ goals

33%

Milan U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Milan U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Milan U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 1.84 + Milan U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.88

Milan U19 attack 0.82 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

54%

level

23%

Milan U19 scores more

24%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff