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Mika vs BKMA II — First League 2019

Mika
Mika
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
BKMA II
BKMA II
3/30/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 18RCCSD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Mika19%
×Draw21%
BKMA II61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mika
1.07
BKMA II
2.09

BKMA II creates 95% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 71 away

creates per match

Mika
0.91
BKMA II
2.20

allows per match

Mika
1.98
BKMA II
1.24

finishing

Mika+0.00on par
BKMA II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mika ↓

BKMA II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Mika or draw
39%
Mika or BKMA II
79%
Draw or BKMA II
81%

Winning margin

Mika wins by 2+
7%
BKMA II wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Mika 1+ goals
66%
Mika 2+ goals
29%
Mika 3+ goals
9%
BKMA II 1+ goals
88%
BKMA II 2+ goals
62%
BKMA II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Mika (draw refunded)
24%
BKMA II (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mika at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.98 · 56 matches

BKMA II away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mika attack 0.91 + BKMA II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

BKMA II attack 2.20 + Mika defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mika scores more
19%
level
21%
BKMA II scores more
61%

BKMA II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "BKMA II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mika vs BKMA II

BKMA II beat Mika 4-0 in First League on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at RCCSD Stadium in Yerevan.