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BKMA II vs Mika — First League 2019

BKMA II
BKMA II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mika
Mika
11/26/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

BKMA II71%
×Draw16%
Mika13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKMA II
2.71
Mika
1.07

BKMA II creates 153% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 58 away

creates per match

BKMA II
2.70
Mika
1.02

allows per match

BKMA II
1.13
Mika
2.71

finishing

BKMA II+0.00on par
Mika+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKMA II ↓

Mika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

BKMA II or draw
87%
BKMA II or Mika
84%
Draw or Mika
29%

Winning margin

BKMA II wins by 2+
50%
Mika wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

BKMA II 1+ goals
93%
BKMA II 2+ goals
75%
BKMA II 3+ goals
50%
Mika 1+ goals
66%
Mika 2+ goals
29%
Mika 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

BKMA II (draw refunded)
85%
Mika (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKMA II at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.13 · 70 matches

Mika away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.71 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKMA II attack 2.70 + Mika defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.71

Mika attack 1.02 + BKMA II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

BKMA II scores more
71%
level
16%
Mika scores more
13%

BKMA II at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "BKMA II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: BKMA II 4–0 Mika

BKMA II beat Mika 4-0 in First League on November 26, 2025.